Daniel Ricciardo’s start to the 2024 F1 season has been disappointing, with one particular statistic highlighting his struggles.

Before the season began, there was speculation about whether Ricciardo would excel and earn a return to Red Bull in 2025. However, it seems that an early departure from RB is now more likely, as the eight-time race winner has yet to show the pace that earned him a one-year deal with Red Bull’s sister team.

Ricciardo is facing added pressure from his teammate Yuki Tsunoda, who has shown strong leadership skills and scored the team’s first points of the season with a seventh-place finish at the Australian Grand Prix.

One major concern for Ricciardo is his qualifying performance compared to Tsunoda. He has consistently been slower than the Japanese driver in one-lap pace, failing to out-qualify him so far this season. In fact, across the first three races, Ricciardo has been on average +0.446s slower than Tsunoda, a significant gap that is raising eyebrows.

Comparisons have been drawn to Nyck de Vries, who faced a similar situation last year before being replaced after 10 races. De Vries was on average +0.421s slower than Tsunoda in the opening three rounds of the 2023 season.

Will Ricciardo suffer the same fate?

The numbers don’t look good for Ricciardo, who is even being replaced in first practice at the Japanese Grand Prix by Red Bull junior driver Ayumu Iwasa.

Rumors suggest that Ricciardo may have only two more races to turn things around before potentially being replaced by Liam Lawson. However, Lawson’s manager is reportedly unaware of any such situation.